Many Trump supporters often claim that polls are biased and never resemble actual elections. Also, whenever Trump is falling by double digits in polls, they fall back on the argument that “Reagan was doing just as bad in 1980”. Well of course they’re wrong just like most of the things the alt-right claims.
Trumpkins often cite the Brexit polls leading up to the referendum and the actual result. They say that since Brexit polls were off from the final result, polls are unreliable and should not be cited as credible evidence. This is somewhat sound logic, if that’s what actually happened, too bad it didn’t. Here’s a breakdown of the polls: From April 1, 2016 to the referendum on June 22, the polls were with 4-5 points of each other, but Remain took took the lead in 44 polls, while Leave only led 37. I can already here the Trumpkin saying, “Remain won more polls! Ha! You’re wrong!” Hold your horses there. During the Brexit vote undecided voters usually remained around 11-15%. In an anomaly like fashion nearly all the undecided votes went to the Leave party while a minority went to the Remain party. So, in conclusion, it’s not the fact that the Brexit polls were unreliable, but that there were so many undecided voters that swung the final tally.
In the recent polls and RCP average, there are around 7-10% undecided voters. Clinton holds an average of 5.9% lead. So in order for Trump to pull off a Brexit like anomaly, Trump would have to take 80-90% of undecided voters. Considering his unfavorability rating at 61%, that’s not likely.
Trumpsters also cite the 1980 presidential election as a last hope to reassure themselves. They also maintain this as more evidence that polls shouldn’t be believed. A popular meme says Reagan polled at 39% and Carter led at 45% a few days before the election. Well, again, this is wrong. Although there was a steep decline during August, from the RNC convention in July, Reagan’s average never once below Carter. Furthermore, Trump is no Reagan. Reagan was the best orator since Churchill. In his speeches Trump can barely put together sentences. Reagan was a conservative for nearly his entire adult life. Trump has only been a republican for a few years. Reagan was a hardline conservative. Trump is more centrist than Republican (but what’s the difference these days). To sum it up polls are very reliable sources to see how the election will play out.
It goes without saying how awful Trump is as a candidate. From May to the present Trump has only led in the polling average once for a week in August. In other words, since the end of May Trump has only lead the average 5% of the time, while Hillary has taken up the remaining 95% of the time. How can this happen when you run against the most corrupt individual to ever run for president in US history? When the majority of the country thinks the country is moving in the wrong direction? When there has been time after time his opponent has been revealed to be a liar?
Now comapare this year to the 2004 race between Bush and Kerry:
As you can see the 2004 race was much more closer until the last weeks of the election. This is what the race should have looked like if Trump had a chance, not the blow out that is occurring now.
This was written by P.L. who can also be found @_Southern_Conservative_ on Instagram. His opinions are his own and do not necessarily represent the rest of the writers or the blog as a whole.