June 12th is quickly approaching. It will be here this Tuesday and the Dictator of North Korea– Kim Jong-Un– will meet with the President of the United States– Donald Trump. Here is how it will (probably) go down:
- Kim will get a propaganda win. He is the leader of a rogue state but got a summit with the leader of the free world. No matter what else happens, North Korea just achieved a major foreign policy goal.
- Trump will claim disarmament regardless if there is actual disarmament. A few weeks ago, the White House rejected a serious definition of denuclearization–immediate, comprehensive, verifiable and irreversible. That eliminates the need to worry about unimportant things– like details.
- The odds of Kim giving up his nukes are near zero. While it is certainly possible Trump sells the farm, it is possible and it would take the farm for Kim to give up his nuclear arsenal.
- A less aggressive arms control treaty is possible but probably will not happen because– let us be honest– Trump cares more about flashy headlines than actually solving the Korean crisis and limitations on intermediate-range ballistic missiles do not make for good headlines in the New York Times.
- The MAGA cult will make dumb claims. For example, they will claim it is a historic win for the Trump administration that he was able to meet with Kim. Since no other President did this, it is obvious proof he is the greatest President ever. Of course, they will ignore it has been a foreign policy goal of the Kim Regimes for decades to meet with the US– it gives them international legitimacy– but American Presidents have denied it on purpose but details are for cucks.
- The MAGA cult will claim victory– no matter what.